Whether you’re a businessman, a politician, a stockbroker, or a pundit the temptation to—and increasingly the necessity of—making predictions is one of the hazards of the today’s world. Businessmen must forecast the business climate and their performances for sales and for budgeting at least a year in advance. Politicians need to accurately predict the impact of their legislative actions, decisions, and initiatives. The same holds true for stockbrokers and pundits if they want to keep their jobs.
Predicting the future is part of what we do. It is part of the job description for many of us. Despite this demand for predicting outcomes, it appears that we have not gotten any better at the job of predicting. So, if you have made a few predictions that have proven inaccurate, take heart, because you are most assuredly not alone.
There is an aptly named book called The Experts Speak, by Christopher Cerf and Victor Navasky. It is a compilation of some of the most authoritative predictions by highly reputable business people, authorities, politicians, and prognosticators. Here are some excerpts from the world of the experts.
There is not the slightest indication that [nuclear energy] will ever be obtainable. It would mean that the atom would have to be shattered at will.
—Albert Einstein, 1932
I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.
—Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943.
That the automobile has practically reached the limit of its development is suggested by the fact that during the past year no improvements of a radical nature have been introduced.
—Scientific American, Jan. 2, 1909
Sixteen years after this prediction from a leading voice in the scientific community, Harvey Corbett of the American Institute of Architects said in reference to the automobile industry:
Fifty years hence automobile traffic will have entirely disappeared from the surface thoroughfares of New York City, and people will be shot through tubes like merchandise.
By my calculations that would be 1975, which happens to be the same year that I lived and worked in New York City and managed to accumulate over $900 in parking tickets for my car. I could have benefited from the tube transport idea had it only been accurate.
The numbers of inaccurate and laughable predictions are virtually endless, but let me leave you with this one that was a major business mistake.
There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.
—Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977
As you think about the future and wonder where your business will be, remember that predicting is a tough business with a lot of pitfalls. Our advice is to keep at it, keep adjusting, keep learning, and keep talking to your peers in the business. One good place to do that is the Tobacco Plus Expo that takes place in Las Vegas on April 26-27, 2007 at the Las Vegas Convention Center. •